Up to 1 billion of the world’s adults are projected to be obese by 2025. This is largely due to the spread of westernised diet due to intense marketing by the food industry.
The World Health Organisation (WHO) has set a goal for 2025 of no increase in obesity or diabetes beyond the levels of 2010. Nevertheless, there is likely to be a rise in diabetes, heart disease, cancer and other conditions fuelled by obesity.
However, the World Obesity Federation (WOF) claims that obesity rose from 11.5% of adults , or 565 million people, in 2010 to 13% (670 million) in 2014.Moreover, if the trend does not change, 17% of adults will be obese by 2025 – 170 million adults with a BMI above 35. If those that are overweight are added to those that are obese, by 2025 there will be about 2.7 billion with excess weight, up from 2 billion in 2010.
The cause of the weight gain is the rapid transition from traditional foods, often grown in the community, to modern urban diets – and especially the take-up of sugary soft drinks and snacks. Increased sedentary behaviour is also a major issue.
The WOF blames the multinationals, known as Big Food. Their marketing strategies are to reach further and further into developing countries.
Obesity rates appear to be levelling off in the wealthier countries of North America and Europe, although there is no sign of a downturn. But developing countries have shown an escalation in obesity rates never seen before. The United States no longer leads the world in obesity, having been overtaken by some 18 states, from the Caribbean to the Middle East and the Pacific Islands.
Table 1 Top five countries with a rise in adult obesity, 2010-2014:
Myanmar | 29.3 |
Uganda | 26.7 |
Cambodia | 26.1 |
Laos | 26.0 |
Burundi | 24.4 |
Source: World Obesity Foundation
Table 2 Obese adults (per 1000 adults):
2010 | 2014 | 2025 | |
World | 120 | 134 | 178 |
Australia | 258 | 282 | 345 |
Mexico | 276 | 297 | 378 |
Trinidad and Tobago | 280 | 318 | 432 |
UK | 253 | 277 | 341 |
USA | 313 | 335 | 403 |
Child obesity figures are also rising in many developing countries, particularly in the Middle East, Latin America, China and parts of south-east Asia, which means there will eventually be further worsening of the adult figures.
A big problem is the assumption that children in developing countries are under-nourished and need more calories. In Mexico, which has some of the highest levels of child obesity in the world, in 2012 the two largest contributors to children’s energy intake were milk – much of it sweetened milk drinks – and sugar-sweetened soft drinks.
Despite a reputation for sport and outdoor living, Australia has one of the fattest populations on the planet. Its rate of obesity is the second-fastest growing in the world, and the fastest among women, according to the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare. The figures from the World Obesity Federation show Australia now has 62 severely obese people per 1,000 adults, up from 55 in 2010. Regional and remote-living Australians are already about 15% more likely to be obese than metropolitan residents. Australia was on track for almost 80% of its population to be overweight or obese by 2025. It is currently at more than 63%.
Diseases associated with obesity and being overweight have financial impacts as well as health ones. An Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle study in 2005 estimated an annual indirect cost of AU$21bn (£12bn) and a direct cost of $35.6bn to the economy.
Preventing obesity means tough government action to limit the promotion of junk food, especially to children, to ensure healthier food is offered at work, in schools and institutions, and to encourage physical activity through better urban design and transport systems.
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